economics LO18894

Lee Bloomquist (LBLOOMQUIST/0005099717@MCIMAIL.COM)
Wed, 19 Aug 1998 08:36:41 -0500 (EST)

Replying to LO18872 --

Simon wrote "The individual may not know exactly what
their interests and preferences are..."

Here's where another idea from (financial) economics that
may provide some insight-

"Discounted cash flow."

The first idea behind this economic concept is that an
individual can only estimate, and not know, the future.

The second idea is that the farther into the future the
individual speculates, the worse the estimate.

The third idea is that "what exists" must not be discounted.
So, for example, cash flow in the current period is not
discounted.

Taking these ideas together, the formula for discounted
cash flow is the sum of (a) cash flow in the current period,
not discounted, and (b) every estimated cash flow from
every future period, each estimate discounted more and
more, the farther and farther into the future the estimate.

Say that instead of "discounted cash flow," we want to
calculate the "discounted flow of value from what's in an
individual's own best interests."

(Notice that usually individuals don't know the time of
their own death-- adding even more uncertainty to this
calculation.)

A possible conclusion?

If an organization where every individual knows with
complete certainty what's in their own best interests does
have the potential to exist, then there must exist some kind
of knowledge which doesn't depend on knowing the
future.

Because if knowing what's in your own best interests does
depend on knowing the future-- as it does in this
application of the idea of "discounted flow"-- then
knowing what's in your own best interests, with absolute
certainty, is impossible.

Why?

Because knowing the future is impossible.

Then an organization where every individual knows their
own best interests would be impossible-- because knowing
your own best interests would depend on knowing the
future, which is impossible.

Unless...

Knowing what's in your own best interests involves some
other kind of knowledge.

According to the formula, it would be know-how-- not
about the future (b), but about the present (a)... Which
enables an individual to learn what's in their own best
interests.

Recalling the very first message of this thread, that's
apparently what Socrates taught.

-- 

Lee Bloomquist <LBLOOMQUIST/0005099717@MCIMAIL.COM>

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