To Alonzo Villarreal, Jr. regarding LO19415
If you have not already seen the material on scenario building,
you might find it interesting. It makes a great case for proactive
planning and behavior, as opposed to Weick's thesis that "you cannot
anticipate until you act". Scenario theory also suggests that predictions
and forecasting may create "default scenarios"--those that only
extrapolate what is currently known. Scenario theory throws in "wild
cards" or "spoilers", a term used by Phil Burgess, Center for the New
West, in Denver, Colorado. These are the events or surprises that are
rare, but have huge impacts when they come.
The bottom line, for me, with scenarios, is that having thought
about multiple possible futures, I have a competitive advantage over those
who have looked in only one direction, and planned for only one possible
future. I can make adjustments more quickly because I've thought about
possibilities.
--"Dorothy Martin" <DMartin@vines.ColoState.EDU>
Learning-org -- Hosted by Rick Karash <rkarash@karash.com> Public Dialog on Learning Organizations -- <http://www.learning-org.com>